BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Texas has surged: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+132%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Texas: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Texas is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.03–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Texas is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.03–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.030.23
20260.130.030.23
20270.130.030.23
20280.130.030.23
20290.130.030.23

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arenosa Crk520071970
Athens420241983
Massey Lake320241976
Agua Nueva219771977
Cayuga220242005
Thornton 2220012001
Oak Grove219921979
Gause219931993
Caledonia220242024
Oakwood219741974
Thornton219791979
Bear Mtn220071992
Easton 2220232015
Union Hill220242018
Liberty Hill220231970
Sadler220241999
Smyrna 2220232023
Mt. Selman220242021
Wills Point220161994
Gambill Ref.220241995
Oak Grove 2120212005
Hearne120192009
Ft. Davis120212004
Blue Ridge120242001
Chandler 2120242005

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.