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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Michigan has surged: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+143%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Michigan: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Michigan is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.7–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Michigan is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.7–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.02.65.5
20264.12.65.5
20274.12.65.6
20284.12.75.6
20294.22.75.6

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barry S.G.A.1720121995
Nashville1220241968
Howardsville1220241970
Almena1020151993
Belding 2920242004
Allegan Wma920191993
Galesburg820241966
Monterey820241978
Prattville820211967
Bell Oak 2820232016
Hamburg 2820242004
Imp Lake820191993
Ishpeming720191994
Mottville720241967
Frederic720031971
Barry S.G.A. 2720192013
Big Blue Lk620241979
Riggsville620191968
Cohoctah620242021
Crystal Fls520241985
Bravo520231974
Pettysville519791969
Frederic 2520172004
Hartland520111992
Bergland420191979

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.