BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Tennessee has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

21×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Tennessee: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 3.9–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 3.9–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.83.65.9
20264.83.76.0
20274.93.86.1
20285.03.86.1
20295.13.96.2

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Sandy2020241966
Signal Mtn1620241979
Jasper1520241968
Pond Creek1420241966
Indian Mound 21320232004
Jones Gap1220191982
Oliver Spgs1020221966
Wrigley920221971
Fish Springs920231966
Smokey Jct820221966
Union Hill720241967
Mt Olive720241978
Willis Sprng720231994
Mecca720231994
Trace Collinwood720182015
Mansfield620241984
Silerton620241984
Silver Pt620241980
Lewis Forest520241966
Elk Valley520221970
Corryton Rd520191985
Harbuck520231994
Trace Lewis520172013
Moscow420242003
Bradyville420191985

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.