BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in New York has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+103%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in New York: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in New York is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.2–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in New York is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.2–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.02.04.0
20263.02.14.0
20273.12.14.0
20283.12.14.1
20293.12.24.1

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Catskills1620151967
W Shokan1420191968
North Easton1420241967
Rhinebeck1320241966
Castile1320241978
Penfield1220241970
Parishville1220241968
St Regis Fls1020121977
Highland920221968
Bedford719961967
Trumansburg720241968
Mckeever720221974
Argyle720241969
Naples720241966
Medusa620241968
Oneonta620241968
Old Forge620061971
Philadelphia620241980
Manorville520241966
Laurens520241969
Canadice L520241970
Sheridan520241967
Watertown520121997
Kasoag520241967
Highmarket520241968

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.