BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in North Dakota has surged: up 300% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+300%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in North Dakota: up 300% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in North Dakota is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.09–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.6395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in North Dakota is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.09–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.070.61
20260.340.080.61
20270.350.080.62
20280.350.090.62
20290.360.090.63

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emerado620241973
Abercrombie620121980
Kempton420171988
Cooperstown420241973
Abercrombie 2320152013
Carpio219871987
Roosevelt Pk220151994
Solen220242007
Forman120191970
Walcott120211967
Edgeley120212016
Bowesmont120141968
Nash120171981
Rolla120211983
Ft Yates119901990
Stanley119861986
Denbigh120181968
Zap120191989
Gorham120072007
Turtle Mtns120241981
Bowesmont 2120162016

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.