BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Mississippi has surged: up 558% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+558%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Mississippi: up 558% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Mississippi is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.95 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.12–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.62Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Mississippi is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.95 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.12–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.071.1
20260.590.091.1
20270.600.101.1
20280.610.111.1
20290.620.121.1

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace South820192007
Trace Central720222007
Dundee620221997
Trace Choctaw620192012
Trace Lorman520192016
Oak Ridge Vick520212016
Weir420242016
Tallahatchie320242022
Trace Chickasaw320242014
Warren Vick320192019
Trace North320142008
Tippo220242008
Duck Hill220241987
Trace Hinds220212014
Corinth220241981
Trace Attala220192016
Beverly120101968
Sandy Creek119941994
Benton120222022
Isola119971997
Okatibbee L.120072007
Lucien119881987
Fayette119711971
Olive Branch120002000
Cockrum120242017

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.