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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in North Carolina has surged: up 475% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+475%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in North Carolina: up 474% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in North Carolina is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.6–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in North Carolina is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.6–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.11.52.8
20272.21.52.8
20282.21.52.9
20292.21.62.9
20302.31.62.9

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
French Broad River1220232004
Saxapahaw1120231967
Brevard1120251968
N. Mills Riv919951994
Linville820251976
Bullock820251999
Cherryville719661966
Cullowhee720251974
Durham720251992
Fairview720252008
Dismal Swamp720241993
Fontana620251968
Raeford620251990
Sheep Ridge620251995
Hallsboro520161987
Sturgills520252002
Uwharrie Nf520011994
Beargrass419811971
Speed420251966
Climax420251973
Jamesville420251983
Sawmill420251990
Eden420251997
Biscoe420251990
Sheffield420251995

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.