BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in New Mexico has surged: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+342%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in New Mexico: up 341% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in New Mexico is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.82–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.82–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in New Mexico is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.82–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.752.0
20271.40.772.1
20281.40.782.1
20291.40.802.1
20301.50.822.1

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reserve3320251993
Emory Pass1720251993
Mt. Taylor 21120242014
Mcgaffey1020251994
Cloudcroft720251975
Bluewater Lake720211999
Stinking Lk.619991994
Angel Fire620021992
Angel Fire 2420252005
Cebolla320231973
Pecos320171973
Mt. Taylor320121993
Gallinas320251992
Ojo Sarco220231968
Claunch220001980
Grenville119921992
Fence Lake120251975
Horse Spgs120221978
Horse Mtn120231968
Carrizozo120241977
Dulce120232000
Magdalena120032003
Counselor120242001
Vallecitos120251994
Mountainair120161994

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.