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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Arkansas has surged: up 525% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+525%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Arkansas: up 525% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Arkansas is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.2–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Arkansas is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.2–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.92.03.9
20263.02.03.9
20273.02.14.0
20283.12.14.0
20293.12.24.1

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crowley'S Ridge2020242011
Boston Mtn.2020241994
Ozark Nf1620241991
Compton1420221967
Farwell1220182010
Rudy1020242011
Rupert920241967
Sims920242010
Waldron820241967
Lurton620231967
Marshall620212011
Hatfield 2520242017
Magazine Mtn420211993
Fulton420241967
Ravenden Springs320152010
Havana320212010
Nance320241992
Locust Bayou220221996
Ashdown220191987
Crows219911970
Poyen220061970
Yellville220222010
Russell220182011
Springhill220222022
Stephens220162011

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.