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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Arkansas has surged: up 576% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+576%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Arkansas: up 576% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Arkansas is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.3–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Arkansas is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.3–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.02.14.0
20273.12.14.0
20283.12.24.1
20293.22.24.1
20303.22.34.2

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crowley'S Ridge1920252011
Compton1420221967
Boston Mtn.1320251994
Farwell1220182010
Ozark Nf1020251991
Rupert920241967
Waldron720251967
Rudy720252011
Magazine Mtn620251993
Lurton620231967
Marshall620212011
Sims620252010
Nance620251992
Hatfield 2520252017
Yellville520252010
Hope420251967
Fulton320251967
Centerton320252010
Ravenden Springs320152010
Havana320212010
Poyen 2320252009
Locust Bayou220221996
Ashdown220191987
Crows219911970
Poyen220061970

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.