BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in South Dakota has surged: up 639% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+639%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in South Dakota: up 639% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in South Dakota is projected to rise about 129% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.38–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+129%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.38–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±137.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in South Dakota is projected to rise about 129% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.38–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.990.331.6
20261.00.341.7
20271.00.351.7
20281.00.371.7
20291.00.381.7

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Norbeck1420021993
Elk Mountain820041992
Lightning Cr820221992
Custer620241967
Rochford520181993
Black Fox320171992
Rosebud220092006
Wind Cave Np220231999
Hill City220131996
Englewood220211992
Lennox119921992
Howard120212016
White Lake119811981
Geddes120211973
Chamberlain120052005
Winner120191977
Volga120241992
Roswell120112011
Wilmot120242016
Veblen120032003
Britton120072002
Roubaix Lk119911976
Harding119811981
Maurine120162016
Ardmore120152015

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.