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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Virginia has surged: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+147%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Virginia: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Virginia is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 3.0–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Virginia is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 3.0–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.02.75.3
20274.12.85.4
20284.12.85.4
20294.22.95.5
20304.23.05.5

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glenwood1720231992
Potts Mtn.1620131992
Front Royal1420251993
Mountain Lk.1220181992
Isom1120241970
Covington1120251966
Pw Forest Pk1120091992
David1020131978
New Market920251992
Pine Mtn.920251996
Putnam820251973
Brandon820251992
Big Meadows820251994
Jerome720251972
Amherst720251969
Covesville720251967
Carters Brdg 2720252015
Rural Retrt720251982
Shenandoa Np720251993
Star Tannery620251977
Partlow620151977
Concord620241967
Irisburg620251976
Taylorstown520101967
Churchville520251966

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.