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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Kansas has surged: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

25×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Kansas: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Kansas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Kansas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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20271.61.12.1
20281.61.12.2
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White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trading Post1220252000
Ellinor620251981
Kanopolis520251973
Morehead520252003
Olsburg520252001
Wellington420251993
Grantville420221981
Seneca420221969
Reece420252000
Lincolnville420242002
Longton420022002
Melrose320231993
Dover320221971
Le Loup320182000
Jewell 2220252006
Olathe220211982
Barclay220231976
Wreford220241967
Buckeye220181968
Gray220142014
Leoville220151989
Minneapolis220191970
Covert220251975
Gove220002000
Bucyrus220252022

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.