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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Missouri has surged: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+152%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Missouri: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.7 (95% range 2.8–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.7 (95% range 2.8–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.52.66.4
20264.52.66.4
20274.62.76.5
20284.62.76.5
20294.72.86.6

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moselle2420242000
Clementine2320021974
Doe Run2320242015
Sweden1920241968
Osage Beach1920241997
Rueter 21720242023
Mincy1520242013
Cascade1420241967
Eugene1420242013
Clementine 21320072005
House Springs1220242017
Viburnum1120242014
Cassville1020241967
Whitewater820241996
Akers720241967
Richland720212016
West Plains720242014
Bland720241995
Palace720242014
Graniteville720241983
Graydon620241967
Hayden620241975
Centertown620241988
Crane620241994
Centerville620241994

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.