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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Missouri has surged: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+157%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Missouri: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Missouri is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.8–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Missouri is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.8–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.52.66.4
20274.52.76.4
20284.62.76.5
20294.62.76.5
20304.72.86.6

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
House Springs3520252017
Clementine2320021974
Osage Beach2120251997
Akers1920251967
Cascade1620251967
Rueter 21420252023
Clementine 21320072005
Sweden1120251968
Viburnum1120242014
Mincy1120252013
Moselle1120252000
Gerald1020252013
Bennett1020251994
Palace1020252014
Graniteville1020251983
Cassville920251967
Hayden920251975
Peace Valley820251975
Crane820251994
Miller720252014
West Plains720252014
Williamsvill720251994
Whitewater720251996
Centertown620241988
Eugene620252013

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.