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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Oklahoma has surged: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+113%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Oklahoma: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.7 (95% range 5.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.7 (95% range 5.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.64.912
20278.65.012
20288.65.012
20298.75.012
20308.75.112

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blanco3420161967
Heyburn3020251992
Ouachita Nf2820251991
Phillips2720251968
Keetonville2620221992
Ardmore2420251967
Tatums2420251992
Choctaw2120231967
Cashion1820241992
Pocola1720161992
Baron1620231967
Beggs1620231967
Verden1620171967
Matoy1620251992
Ft Sill West1619941994
Wichita Mtns1519941994
Sandbluff1420251992
Hunter1320241992
Jet1220241992
Goodwater1120211992
Mt. Herman1120221998
Holdenville1020251967
Colcord1020221992
Douglas920221967
Ft Sill East919941994

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.