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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Oklahoma has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+118%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Oklahoma: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.7 (95% range 5.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.7 (95% range 5.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.54.912
20268.54.912
20278.64.912
20288.65.012
20298.75.012

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Heyburn4320241992
Tatums3520241992
Blanco3420161967
Matoy2720001992
Keetonville2620221992
Choctaw2120231967
Noble2020241967
Cashion1820241992
Pocola1720161992
Baron1620231967
Holdenville1620241967
Beggs1620231967
Verden1620171967
Ft Sill West1619941994
Ouachita Nf1520241991
Wichita Mtns1519941994
Hunter1320241992
Duncan1320241986
Jet1220241992
Goodwater1120211992
Mt. Herman1120221998
Phillips1020081968
Colcord1020221992
Mill Creek920171968
Indianola920241967

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.