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Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Indiana has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Indiana: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Indiana is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.5–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Indiana is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.5–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.62.44.8
20273.62.44.8
20283.62.44.8
20293.72.54.9
20303.72.54.9

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Belmont2420241981
Hoosier1420251990
Witts Station1420252000
New Phila1320251982
Wallace1320242000
Brookville1220251967
Indian Spgs1020251982
Scottsburg1020251982
Georgia920251999
Millersburg820241981
Clear Spring820251981
Azalia620251982
Cyprss620251999
Middletown520251967
Friendswood520241986
Jamestown520241999
Spencer520241970
Washington520241987
Monticello420251984
Galveston420251981
Celestine420251979
Evansville420221966
New Castle420242002
Newberry420251999
Columbia Cty320241983

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.