BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Texas has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+110%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
140Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Texas: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.9 (95% range 3.6–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.9 (95% range 3.6–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.83.58.2
20275.93.58.2
20285.93.68.2
20295.93.68.2
20305.93.68.3

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Livingston6120251969
Easton 24220252014
Schroeder3619971967
New Waverly3420251969
Diboll3120251968
Muldoon3020251970
Arenosa Crk2920251968
Chandler 22920242005
Burton2720251996
Union Hill2620241994
Weches2520251995
Oakwood2419951967
Oak Grove 22420252003
Powell Park2320211995
Mt. Selman2320251998
Paige2320252015
Yoakum2220251994
Thornton 22120101985
Chandler2020041968
Carlos2020251993
Hearne1920251998
Cayuga1920251996
Fannin1920251998
Smyrna1920101995
Liberty Hill1820251968

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.