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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Texas has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+99%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
139Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Texas: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Texas is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 3.6–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Texas is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 3.6–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.83.58.2
20265.83.58.2
20275.93.58.2
20285.93.58.2
20295.93.68.3

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Diboll7020241968
Livingston5420241969
Moon Lake 24420242012
Schroeder3619971967
Burton3520241996
Muldoon2920241970
Chandler 22920242005
Caledonia2820241969
Union Hill2620241994
Yoakum2520241994
Mt. Selman2520241998
Oakwood2419951967
Dripping Spg2320241985
Powell Park2320211995
Dallas2220241967
Oak Grove 22220242003
Paige2220242015
Morton2120241970
Thornton 22120101985
Carlos2120241993
Weches2120241995
Chandler2020041968
Thornton 32020242018
Cayuga1920241996
Hawley1920241994

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.