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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Louisiana has surged: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+131%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Louisiana: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 9.1–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.1–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 9.1–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026138.718
2027138.818
2028148.918
2029149.018
2030149.118

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kraemer5920251997
Baton Rouge5120251995
Ramah3920251988
Carlisle3619881968
Junior3619911987
Natchez3320251992
Easton3219901967
Lafitte3119911967
Morgan City3119861967
Fishville 23120252018
Plettenberg2820221968
Carterville2619921992
Atchafalaya2420251989
Pearl River2320251989
Concord2220192006
Derry 22120251990
Evelyn2120242004
Roseland2020251967
Burr Ferry2020251987
Franklinton2020252008
Derry1919891967
Mer Rouge1920081967
Mount Union1920251998
Fishville1820171967
Greensburg1820221988

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckymarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.