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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Louisiana has surged: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+141%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Louisiana: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Louisiana is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 8.9–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.9–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Louisiana is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 8.9–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025138.518
2026138.618
2027138.718
2028138.818
2029148.918

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Baton Rouge7820241995
Kraemer6420241997
Atchafalaya4120241989
Carlisle3619881968
Junior3619911987
Ramah3420241988
Natchez3420241992
Clay3320241968
Easton3219901967
Lafitte3119911967
Morgan City3119861967
Burr Ferry2920241987
Plettenberg2820221968
Longstreet2720241967
Carterville2619921992
Mount Union2520241998
Vinton 22320242011
Concord2220192006
Cheniere2120241984
Evelyn2120242004
Derry1919891967
Mer Rouge1920081967
Norwood1920242004
Ivan 21920162014
Goodwill1920242004

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckymarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.