BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee

ParidaeForest birdsPoecile carolinensis

Carolina Chickadee has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,537RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Carolina Chickadee

The Carolina Chickadee (Poecile carolinensis) is a North American member of the Chickadees & Titmice (Paridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–6 in long (11–15 cm) — a tiny, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 1,537 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 24 states, most concentrated in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Family
Paridae · Forest birds

Notable Carolina Chickadee TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Chickadee. See the full index history below.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.1 (95% range 2.5–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.1 (95% range 2.5–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.12.53.6
20263.12.53.6
20273.12.53.7
20283.12.53.7
20293.12.53.7

Where the Carolina Chickadee Is Detected

BBS routes recording Carolina Chickadee, sized by most recent count.

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend by State

Carolina Chickadee population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+17%1968109
Arkansas+24%196962
Delaware+414%196817
Florida+103%196880
Georgia+32%1968110
Illinois+411%196840
Indiana+85%196852
Kansas+909%196914
Kentucky-13%196864
Louisiana+141%196996
Maryland+86%196865
Mississippi+183%196874
Missouri+152%196952
New Jersey+61%196833
New Yorkinsufficient datan/a1
North Carolina+78%1968112
Ohio+125%196867
Oklahoma+118%196964
Pennsylvania+763%196841
South Carolina+53%196851
Tennessee+82%196855
Texas+99%1969139
Virginia-6%196888
West Virginia+16%196851

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Carolina Chickadee population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+342%19735
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+134%196948
Edwards Plateau+83%196919
Oaks and Prairies+132%196973
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+154%1968105
Prairie Hardwood Transition+31%19884
Central Hardwoods+27%1968163
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+68%1969110
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+210%196872
Southeastern Coastal Plain+63%1968345
Appalachian Mountains+29%1968251
Piedmont+92%1968167
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+64%1968101
Peninsular Florida+366%196835
Gulf Coastal Prairie+186%196933

Carolina Chickadee Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 19% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.