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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has risen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026126.317
2027126.317
2028126.317
2029126.317
2030116.217

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LivingstonTEXAS612025
Easton 2TEXAS422025
BlancoOKLAHOMA342016
New WaverlyTEXAS342025
NatchezLOUISIANA332025
EastonLOUISIANA321990
Fishville 2LOUISIANA312025
DibollTEXAS312025
BlakelyARKANSAS291999
Chandler 2TEXAS292024
Magazine MtnARKANSAS282025
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA282025
PhillipsOKLAHOMA272025
StarkARKANSAS262025
CartervilleLOUISIANA261992
Union HillTEXAS262024
WechesTEXAS252025
Powell ParkTEXAS232021
Mt. SelmanTEXAS232025
Derry 2LOUISIANA212025
EvelynLOUISIANA212024
Burr FerryLOUISIANA202025
ChandlerTEXAS202004
DerryLOUISIANA191989
Mer RougeLOUISIANA192008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.