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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+68%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has risen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025116.217
2026116.117
2027116.117
2028116.117
2029116.117

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DibollTEXAS702024
LivingstonTEXAS542024
NatchezLOUISIANA342024
BlancoOKLAHOMA342016
ClayLOUISIANA332024
EastonLOUISIANA321990
BlakelyARKANSAS291999
Burr FerryLOUISIANA292024
Chandler 2TEXAS292024
CaledoniaTEXAS282024
LongstreetLOUISIANA272024
MatoyOKLAHOMA272000
CartervilleLOUISIANA261992
Union HillTEXAS262024
Mount UnionLOUISIANA252024
Mt. SelmanTEXAS252024
StarkARKANSAS242024
Powell ParkTEXAS232021
CheniereLOUISIANA212024
EvelynLOUISIANA212024
MortonTEXAS212024
WechesTEXAS212024
ChandlerTEXAS202004
NanceARKANSAS192024
DerryLOUISIANA191989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.