BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Prairie Hardwood Transition has increased: up 31% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+31%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Chickadee in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Carolina Chickadee In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.01–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.01–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.010.04
20260.030.010.04
20270.030.010.04
20280.030.010.04
20290.030.010.04

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Columbia CtyINDIANA32024
PackertownINDIANA32004
KewannaINDIANA11995
Packertown 2INDIANA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.