BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+145%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.4 (95% range 1.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.4 (95% range 1.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.931.7
20271.30.951.7
20281.40.971.8
20291.40.981.8
20301.41.001.8

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
House SpringsMISSOURI352025
Mt VernonILLINOIS292025
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA262022
AshleyOHIO182018
Witts StationINDIANA142025
WallaceINDIANA132024
BrookvilleINDIANA122025
GalesburgKANSAS122025
MoreheadKANSAS112025
MoselleMISSOURI112025
HarveysburgOHIO111996
St MorganILLINOIS102022
GeraldMISSOURI102025
MarionOHIO102023
DarrtownOHIO92021
TecumsehOHIO81982
Harveysburg 2OHIO82025
WelchOKLAHOMA82025
WainwrightOKLAHOMA82013
ReeceKANSAS72025
W CarrolltonOHIO72015
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS62024
BeaucoupILLINOIS62025
MelroseKANSAS62023
HumboldtKANSAS62022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.