BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+154%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.98–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.98–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.98–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.921.7
20261.30.931.7
20271.30.951.7
20281.40.971.8
20291.40.981.8

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA262022
MoselleMISSOURI242024
AshleyOHIO182018
Mt VernonILLINOIS142024
WallaceINDIANA132024
House SpringsMISSOURI122024
HarveysburgOHIO111996
BradburyILLINOIS102024
St MorganILLINOIS102022
MarionOHIO102023
MonticelloINDIANA92024
DarrtownOHIO92021
Witts StationINDIANA82024
TecumsehOHIO81982
WainwrightOKLAHOMA82013
ReeceKANSAS72024
W CarrolltonOHIO72015
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS62024
Grape CreekILLINOIS62024
SwayzeeINDIANA62023
MelroseKANSAS62023
HumboldtKANSAS62022
PittsburgKANSAS62021
MoreheadKANSAS62024
WestervilleOHIO61983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.