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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 199% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+199%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 199% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.3–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026117.814
2027117.914
2028118.115
2029118.215
2030128.315

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KraemerLOUISIANA592025
Baton RougeLOUISIANA512025
RamahLOUISIANA392025
CarlisleLOUISIANA361988
Morgan CityLOUISIANA311986
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA242025
ConcordLOUISIANA222019
RoselandLOUISIANA202025
BerwickLOUISIANA172018
DundeeMISSISSIPPI142022
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI132025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA122025
River RoadLOUISIANA122025
Morgan CityLOUISIANA112022
TippoMISSISSIPPI92025
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI92018
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI82022
KeystoneLOUISIANA72013
ShawLOUISIANA72024
RayvilleLOUISIANA72008
Rayville 2LOUISIANA72025
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI72025
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE72025
HarrisburgARKANSAS62019
AugustaARKANSAS62001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.