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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 210% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+210%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 210% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 8.5–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.5–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 8.5–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.914
2026118.015
2027118.215
2028128.315
2029128.515

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Baton RougeLOUISIANA782024
KraemerLOUISIANA642024
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA412024
CarlisleLOUISIANA361988
RamahLOUISIANA342024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA311986
ConcordLOUISIANA222019
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI192024
BerwickLOUISIANA172018
RoselandLOUISIANA162024
EnglandARKANSAS142024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI142022
Rayville 2LOUISIANA132024
HughesARKANSAS112023
FrogmoreLOUISIANA112024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA112022
TippoMISSISSIPPI112024
River RoadLOUISIANA92024
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI92018
MaynardARKANSAS82024
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA82024
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI82022
KeystoneLOUISIANA72013
ShawLOUISIANA72024
RayvilleLOUISIANA72008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.