BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+132%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 9.5–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.5–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 9.5–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025149.019
2026149.119
2027149.319
2028149.419
2029149.519

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HeyburnOKLAHOMA432024
SchroederTEXAS361997
TatumsOKLAHOMA352024
BurtonTEXAS352024
MuldoonTEXAS292024
YoakumTEXAS252024
OakwoodTEXAS241995
DallasTEXAS222024
Oak Grove 2TEXAS222024
PaigeTEXAS222024
ChoctawOKLAHOMA212023
Thornton 2TEXAS212010
CarlosTEXAS212024
NobleOKLAHOMA202024
Thornton 3TEXAS202024
CayugaTEXAS192024
Miller GroveTEXAS182024
SadlerTEXAS182024
Wills PointTEXAS182023
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA162024
BeggsOKLAHOMA162023
WeatherfordTEXAS152024
College StnTEXAS151990
GreenvilleTEXAS152024
DuncanOKLAHOMA132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.