BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+125%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.4–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.4–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.4–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026149.018
2027149.119
2028149.219
2029149.319
2030149.419

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SchroederTEXAS361997
HeyburnOKLAHOMA302025
MuldoonTEXAS302025
Arenosa CrkTEXAS292025
BurtonTEXAS272025
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA242025
TatumsOKLAHOMA242025
OakwoodTEXAS241995
Oak Grove 2TEXAS242025
PaigeTEXAS232025
YoakumTEXAS222025
ChoctawOKLAHOMA212023
Thornton 2TEXAS212010
CarlosTEXAS202025
HearneTEXAS192025
CayugaTEXAS192025
FanninTEXAS192025
Wills PointTEXAS182023
BeggsOKLAHOMA162023
LydiaTEXAS162025
College StnTEXAS151990
SeldenTEXAS142025
Blue RidgeTEXAS142025
Miller GroveTEXAS132025
DecaturTEXAS132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.