BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+134%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.68–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.68–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.68–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.632.2
20261.40.642.2
20271.40.662.2
20281.40.672.2
20291.50.682.2

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DaltonKANSAS222024
HawleyTEXAS192024
CashionOKLAHOMA182024
VerdenOKLAHOMA162017
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA161994
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA151994
BuckeyeKANSAS131992
HunterOKLAHOMA132024
JetOKLAHOMA122024
WellingtonKANSAS92024
DouglasOKLAHOMA92022
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA91994
GrimesOKLAHOMA72024
ColonyOKLAHOMA71995
CookietownOKLAHOMA52006
ErickOKLAHOMA52024
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA52022
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA52022
Shields 2TEXAS52023
WoodwardOKLAHOMA42024
AshlandKANSAS31987
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA32010
WakitaOKLAHOMA32000
ChesterOKLAHOMA31988
TegardenOKLAHOMA32016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.