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Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Maryland has surged: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+97%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Maryland: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Maryland is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.0–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Maryland is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026117.614
2027117.714
2028117.814
2029117.915
2030118.015

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Island Creek5120251991
Olney4920251966
Honga4320251966
Madison4220251966
Earlton3220242014
Largo3119811966
Ijamsville3020251986
La Plata2820091966
Hughesville2720251966
Forest Grove2720232011
St. George'S Island2720172015
Wheaton2620251990
Madonna2520222009
Williamsport2320251967
Tall Timbers2320141966
Cokesbury2220251966
Silver Spg2119891966
Eklo2120181967
Davidsnville2020251982
Emmitsburg1920251967
Furnace Town1720252015
Pomonkey1620251966
Van Bibber1520131966
Walnut1520241999
Severna Park1420111982

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.