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Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Maryland has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Maryland: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 7.7–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.7–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 7.7–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.314
2026117.414
2027117.514
2028117.614
2029117.714

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheaton5120241990
Ijamsville3720241986
Earlton3220242014
Island Creek3220241991
Largo3119811966
Olney2920241966
La Plata2820091966
Forest Grove2720232011
St. George'S Island2720172015
Cokesbury2620241966
Madonna2520222009
Newark2420241966
Tall Timbers2320141966
Pr Frederick2320241991
Silver Spg2119891966
Eklo2120181967
Millington2020241966
Davidsnville1920241982
Williamsport1820241967
Madison1720241966
Van Bibber1520131966
Walnut1520241999
Easton1420211966
Honga1420241966
Furnace Town1420242015

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.