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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Kansas has surged: up 909% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+909%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Kansas: up 909% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Kansas is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.53–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Kansas is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.53–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.461.6
20261.10.481.6
20271.10.491.7
20281.10.511.7
20291.10.531.7

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dalton2220241970
Buckeye1319921969
Wellington920241970
Reece720242000
Melrose620231967
Humboldt620222016
Pittsburg620212000
Morehead620242000
Galesburg420241972
Ashland319871987
Lapland119961980
Coats119921971
Coldwater120121979
Longton120211978

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.