BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Kansas has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

12×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Kansas: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Kansas is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.58–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Kansas is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.58–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.501.8
20271.20.521.8
20281.20.541.8
20291.20.561.8
20301.20.581.9

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dalton2320251970
Buckeye1319921969
Galesburg1220251972
Morehead1120252000
Reece720252000
Melrose620231967
Humboldt620222016
Wellington620251970
Pittsburg620212000
Ashland319871987
Lapland119961980
Coats119921971
Coldwater120121979
Longton120211978

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.