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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Virginia has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Chickadee in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Virginia is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 9.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 5.3–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Virginia is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 9.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 5.3–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.05.311
20278.05.311
20288.05.311
20297.95.311
20307.95.311

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Partlow2620151977
Fincastle2420251966
Irisburg2120251976
Edinburg1920251968
Ivanhoe1819661966
Newville1820241988
Nat Tunnel1820251981
Branchville1720241966
Cornland1720141975
Brodnax1620251973
Newsoms1620241967
Putnam1520251969
Covington1520251966
Shipman1520251969
White Stone1520251966
Carters Brdg 21520252015
Ft Pickett S1519951993
Brandon1520251992
Dismal Swamp1520161992
Stanley1420251966
Covesville1420251967
Walkers1420231992
Amherst1320251967
Big Island1320251968
Quinby1320251966

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexaswest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.