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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Virginia has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-6%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Chickadee in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Virginia is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 9.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 5.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Virginia is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 9.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 5.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.95.211
20267.95.211
20277.95.211
20287.95.211
20297.95.211

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covington3120241966
Edinburg2720241968
Partlow2620151977
Irisburg2620241976
Hall2020231967
New Market2020241992
Ivanhoe1819661966
Newville1820241988
Branchville1720241966
Cornland1720141975
Newsoms1620241967
Blacksburg1620241988
Carters Brdg 21620242015
Ft Pickett S1519951993
Dismal Swamp1520161992
Tryme1420241975
Amherst1420241967
Quinby1420241966
Pungo1420241975
Walkers1420231992
Covesville1320241967
Finchley1320211994
Brandy Station1220242017
Lake Anna1220242022
Glenwood1220231992

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexaswest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.