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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in North Carolina has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in North Carolina: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 8.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.1–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 8.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.817
2026127.917
2027138.017
2028138.017
2029138.117

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mashoes5119821971
Brevard4220241968
Eden3820241987
Shallotte2919911966
Cypress Cr2820221990
Durham2620241990
Cullowhee2520241974
Wilgrove2520241995
Montague2420241990
Wards Corner2220241966
Mooresville2220011966
Milltail Cr2220241992
Uwharrie Nf2220011993
Myrtle Grove2120241966
Beargrass2119811966
Fontana2120241968
Monticello2120241990
Dudley2020242002
Genoa1920241990
Ostwalt1920242012
Cypress Lakes1920242004
Osmond1820242001
Broad Creek1820241993
Cherokee1820242011
French Broad River1720242001

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.