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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in North Carolina has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+83%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in North Carolina: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in North Carolina is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.1–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in North Carolina is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.817
2027127.917
2028138.017
2029138.017
2030138.117

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mashoes5119821971
Shallotte2919911966
Cypress Cr2820221990
Monticello2820251990
Brevard2720251968
Cypress Lakes2720252004
Jordan2620251966
Myrtle Grove2520251966
Durham2520251990
Montague2420251990
Wards Corner2220241966
Mooresville2220011966
Uwharrie Nf2220011993
Beargrass2119811966
Wilgrove2120251995
Eden1920251987
Siloam1820252005
Youngsville1720251966
Goldston1720222003
Bullock1620251997
Bethel1620252002
Kinston1520241966
Sheffield1520251991
Rose1420251968
Cullowhee1420251974

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.