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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Mississippi has surged: up 164% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+164%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Mississippi: up 164% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Mississippi is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 6.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Mississippi is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 6.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.15.912
20279.15.912
20289.26.012
20299.36.112
20309.36.113

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walthall2719871970
Trace Lorman2720192016
Trace South2520192007
Tupelo2020221966
Trace Madison1920192015
Neely1720121974
Lake Mary1519901974
Cockrum1520241967
Duffee1520081973
Holly Springs1520242009
Dundee1420221970
Corinth1420251972
Duck Hill1320251968
Forest1320251972
Latimer 21320232021
Tallahatchie1320251996
Lucien1220131967
Olive Branch1220011967
Leaf River1220132008
Amite River1220132008
Star1220252016
Trace Lee1220182013
Utica1120211966
Mt Carmel1120161974
Fayette1020131967

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.