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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Florida has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+103%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Florida: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.5 (95% range 3.9–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.5 (95% range 3.9–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.23.66.8
20265.33.76.9
20275.33.77.0
20285.43.87.0
20295.53.97.1

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Miller Xrds3220191987
Seminole Hills 23120222002
Lovedale2620111987
Chassahowitz2620241996
Laurel Hill2220242010
Mt. Olive2020242002
Croom2020241987
New Hope1920112009
Hildreth 21720242010
Doctors Inlet 21620182008
Nobleton1520241987
Belmore1420241967
Citrus1320242010
St Augustine1220241967
Doctor Inlet1220071967
Pinetta1120241987
Alligator Pt1120241987
Green Swamp1120241987
Mossy Head1020111967
Dowling Park1020231987
Blountstown920241966
Miccosukee920241966
Seminole Hls920001967
Mabel 2820192012
Goethe820242010

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.