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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Florida has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+110%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Florida: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.5 (95% range 3.9–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.5 (95% range 3.9–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.33.76.9
20275.43.87.0
20285.43.87.0
20295.53.97.1
20305.53.97.1

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Miller Xrds3220191987
Seminole Hills 23120222002
Mt. Olive2920252002
Lovedale2620111987
Nobleton2520251987
Alligator Pt2120251987
Hildreth 22020252010
New Hope1920112009
Croom1920251987
Apalachicola1720251987
Doctors Inlet 21620182008
Belmore1420241967
Laurel Hill1420252010
Doctor Inlet1220071967
Ft Mccoy1220251987
Green Swamp1220251987
Miccosukee1120251966
Mossy Head1020111967
Blountstown920241966
Seminole Hls920001967
Ocala920251989
Olustee920251992
Steinhatchee820251966
Blackwater820251987
Island Grove820251992

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.