BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Tennessee has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has risen sharply in Tennessee: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Tennessee is projected to rise about 67% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.6–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+67%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.6–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Tennessee is projected to rise about 67% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.6–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026116.316
2027116.416
2028116.516
2029116.616
2030116.616

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walland5419891966
Lovell4520191966
Climer2920041967
Corryton Rd2520191966
Big Sandy2120251966
Pond Creek2120251966
Mt Olive2120241966
Mcfarland1919931967
Jones Gap1820191982
Trace Lewis1820172013
Indian Mound 21620232004
Signal Mtn1520251979
Oliver Spgs1520221966
Willis Sprng1520231994
Mecca1520231994
Red Bank1419781966
Harbuck1420231994
Cornpone1420241990
Smokey Jct1320221966
Tullahoma1120151967
Jefferson Cty1120111966
Trace Collinwood1120182015
Mansfield1020251966
Collinwood1020251966
Wrigley920221966

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.