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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Arkansas has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Chickadee in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Arkansas is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 6.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 4.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Arkansas is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 6.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 4.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.04.711
20278.04.711
20288.04.711
20298.04.711
20308.04.711

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell3820182010
Blakely2919991968
Magazine Mtn2820251993
Stark2620251967
Marshall1620212011
Zion1520251967
Compton1520221967
Nance1520251992
Coal Hill1420231968
Lockesburg1420192010
Four Lakes1420011994
Crows1219911967
Massard1120221967
Centerton1120252010
Ashdown920231967
Ozark Nf820251991
Locust Bayou720231967
Yellville720252010
Dry Fork720232000
Hollywood620241967
Harrisburg620191967
Augusta620011967
Avoca620241967
Springhill620222010
Stephens620252010

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.