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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Arkansas has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Chickadee in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Arkansas is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 4.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Arkansas is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 4.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.14.811
20268.24.811
20278.24.811
20288.24.812
20298.24.912

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell3820182010
Blakely2919991968
Stark2420241967
Zion2120241967
Nance1920241992
Marshall1620212011
Compton1520221967
Coal Hill1420231968
England1420242010
Lockesburg1420192010
Four Lakes1420011994
Magazine Mtn1320211993
Crows1219911967
Hughes1120231967
Massard1120221967
Ozark Nf1020241991
Ashdown920231967
Waldron820241967
Maynard820241967
Yellville820222010
Sims820242010
Locust Bayou720231967
Fulton720241967
Rudy720242011
Boston Mtn.720241994

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.