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Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in South Carolina has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has risen sharply in South Carolina: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 13 (95% range 8.5–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.5–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 13 (95% range 8.5–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026138.218
2027138.318
2028138.418
2029138.518
2030138.518

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Salem Xrd9820191982
Pinewood6220191998
Kiawah Island4120251998
Coward3720251966
Little Mtn3219881966
Adams Run2420251988
Walterboro2220171970
Dillon2020211970
Nixville1920251998
Plum Branch1820251977
Bennettsville1820171998
New Holland1720251967
Ridgeway1620252010
Salem1620252010
Rome1520251967
Chesnee1520151992
Barton Creek1420221967
Joanna1420251999
Owings 21420252005
Owings1320041992
Sandhills1120251994
Holly Hill1020251972
Boykin Ml Pd1019681966
Ward1020252017
Green Sea1020252010

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.