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Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Ohio has surged: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+125%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Ohio: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Ohio is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.0–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Ohio is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.0–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.22.85.6
20264.22.95.6
20274.32.95.7
20284.43.05.7
20294.43.05.8

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ashley1820181988
Tar Hollow1220241992
Dell1220191993
Rome1220241966
Harveysburg1119961966
Marion1020231966
Wayne N.F.920241992
Darrtown920211966
Zaleski S.F.820241992
Mohican S.F.820241992
Dresden820241966
Tecumseh819821967
Tick Ridge720191993
W Carrollton720151989
Westerville619831966
Meadowbrook620211966
Newcomerstwn619951966
Ray620241992
Coal Run619921966
Harveysburg 2520241997
Lucerne520241996
Enon520241984
Stonecreek420241996
Cosmos420121966
Lattasburg420211988

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.