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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Kentucky has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Chickadee in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Kentucky is projected to rise about 90% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 3.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+90%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Kentucky is projected to rise about 90% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 3.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.93.011
20266.93.011
20276.93.111
20287.03.111
20297.03.111

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paintsville6119951979
Cumberlnd Gp4820181966
Staffordsvil4619971996
Kehoe2219921966
Hodgenville 21820232008
Mckee1620241967
Pippa Passes1219971988
Sewell Shop1220231966
Merrimac1120241967
Joy1120231966
Apex1120242005
Levee 21120192007
Phelps1019971979
Beattyville920011966
Dixon820222005
Drakesboro820031966
Beattyville 2820242006
Shiloh720231967
Sunnybrook720221968
Monticello720221968
Pine Ridge719781966
Lovelacevile620241967
Levee619821966
Hustonville620241966
Hodgenville620031967

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaslouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.