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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Kentucky has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Chickadee in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Kentucky is projected to rise about 84% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 2.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+84%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Kentucky is projected to rise about 84% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 2.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.72.811
20276.72.811
20286.72.811
20296.82.811
20306.82.911

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paintsville6119951979
Cumberlnd Gp4820181966
Staffordsvil4619971996
Kehoe2219921966
Hodgenville 21820232008
Pippa Passes1219971988
Mckee1220251967
Merrimac1120241967
Joy1120231966
Sewell Shop1120251966
Levee 21120192007
Phelps1019971979
Shiloh920251967
Beattyville920011966
Dixon820222005
Eastview820251968
Drakesboro820031966
Beattyville 2820242006
Sunnybrook720221968
Monticello720221968
Pine Ridge719781966
Levee619821966
Hodgenville620031967
Buena Vista620171966
Morganfield620242022

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaslouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.