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Species · Delaware · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Delaware

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Delaware has surged: up 449% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+449%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Delaware: up 449% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Delaware is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.5–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Delaware is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.5–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026113.917
2027114.018
2028114.218
2029114.318
2030114.518

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Frederica3220251966
Pepperbox 22120252017
Millsboro1920252017
Pepperbox1920161998
Milton 21720252017
Lowes Xrds1519911966
Harrington1220251966
Mt Pleasant1120191966
Georgetown1120221992
Wilmington820141968
Holleyville720041966
Holleyville 2720242006
Dover619871966
Frankford620121966
Milton520161966
Bethany Bch319901967
Blackbird220251994

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.