BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in New Jersey has surged: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+114%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in New Jersey: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in New Jersey is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 7.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 2.8–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in New Jersey is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 7.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 2.8–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.32.68.0
20275.42.68.1
20285.42.78.1
20295.52.78.2
20305.52.88.2

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Winslow3320251989
Pomona2920251978
Cape May Ch2820131992
Spraguetown 32620252021
Toms River2320241966
Villas1719811979
Bennett Mill 21720252016
Pedricktown1420121991
Bennett Mill1320001966
Woodbury Hgt1220251970
Holmansville1220091969
Del Haven1219911991
Clarksville719911969
New Bedford720241969
Estell Manor620252022
Albion520221966
Sandbrook520251973
Friendship520251977
Spraguetown519971977
Cranbury420241988
Pedricktown 2420252013
Greenwich320251966
Pottersville319931977
Spraguetown 2320122000
Deepwater219771969

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.