BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in New Jersey has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Carolina Chickadee Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has risen sharply in New Jersey: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in New Jersey is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 6.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 2.6–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in New Jersey is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 6.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 2.6–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.12.47.7
20265.12.57.8
20275.22.57.8
20285.22.67.9
20295.22.67.9

Carolina Chickadee Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cape May Ch2820131992
Winslow2420241989
Toms River2320241966
Spraguetown 32020242021
Pomona1920241978
Villas1719811979
Pedricktown1420121991
Bennett Mill1320001966
Holmansville1220091969
Del Haven1219911991
Woodbury Hgt920241970
Sandbrook820241973
Clarksville719911969
New Bedford720241969
Albion520221966
Spraguetown519971977
Bennett Mill 2520242016
Cranbury420241988
Friendship420241977
Pottersville319931977
Estell Manor320222022
Spraguetown 2320122000
Greenwich220241966
Six Points220241978
Deepwater219771969

Carolina Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.