BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Piedmont has surged: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+92%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
167Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Piedmont: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Piedmont is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 10.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10.0–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Piedmont is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 10.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025129.615
2026129.715
2027139.815
2028139.915
20291310.016

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA982019
WheatonMARYLAND512024
EdenNORTH-CAROLINA382024
IjamsvilleMARYLAND372024
FairplayGEORGIA341991
RutledgeGEORGIA322024
EarltonMARYLAND322024
Little MtnSOUTH-CAROLINA321988
OlneyMARYLAND292024
MaxeysGEORGIA282024
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA262024
PartlowVIRGINIA262015
IrisburgVIRGINIA262024
MadonnaMARYLAND252022
WilgroveNORTH-CAROLINA252024
HiramGEORGIA232018
SalemSOUTH-CAROLINA232024
GrovetownGEORGIA222021
MooresvilleNORTH-CAROLINA222001
Uwharrie NfNORTH-CAROLINA222001
CampobelloSOUTH-CAROLINA222024
HollonvilleGEORGIA212003
WhitesburgGEORGIA212024
Silver SpgMARYLAND211989
EkloMARYLAND212018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.