BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.4 (95% range 4.3–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.4 (95% range 4.3–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.24.18.3
20266.24.18.3
20276.34.28.4
20286.34.28.4
20296.44.38.5

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Island CreekMARYLAND322024
LargoMARYLAND311981
La PlataMARYLAND282009
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY282013
Forest GroveMARYLAND272023
St. George'S IslandMARYLAND272017
CokesburyMARYLAND262024
NewarkMARYLAND242024
WinslowNEW-JERSEY242024
MillsboroDELAWARE232024
Tall TimbersMARYLAND232014
Pr FrederickMARYLAND232024
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY232024
MillingtonMARYLAND202024
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY202024
PepperboxDELAWARE192016
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND192024
PomonaNEW-JERSEY192024
MadisonMARYLAND172024
VillasNEW-JERSEY171981
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE151991
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE152024
WalnutMARYLAND152024
EastonMARYLAND142021
HongaMARYLAND142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.