BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 8.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.4–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–8.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 8.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.4–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.44.28.6
20276.54.38.6
20286.54.38.7
20296.54.48.7
20306.64.48.8

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Island CreekMARYLAND512025
HongaMARYLAND432025
MadisonMARYLAND422025
WinslowNEW-JERSEY332025
FredericaDELAWARE322025
LargoMARYLAND311981
PomonaNEW-JERSEY292025
La PlataMARYLAND282009
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY282013
HughesvilleMARYLAND272025
Forest GroveMARYLAND272023
St. George'S IslandMARYLAND272017
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY262025
Tall TimbersMARYLAND232014
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY232024
CokesburyMARYLAND222025
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE212025
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND202025
MillsboroDELAWARE192025
PepperboxDELAWARE192016
Milton 2DELAWARE172025
Furnace TownMARYLAND172025
VillasNEW-JERSEY171981
Bennett Mill 2NEW-JERSEY172025
PomonkeyMARYLAND162025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.