BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+204%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.70.0010
20274.70.0010
20284.80.0010
20294.80.0010
20304.80.0010

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JuniorLOUISIANA361991
LafitteLOUISIANA311991
Hinkles FerTEXAS172025
Moon LakeTEXAS162011
Vinton 2LOUISIANA152025
Moon Lake 2TEXAS142025
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA112025
VintonLOUISIANA112009
Port AcresTEXAS112025
GlencoeLOUISIANA92017
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA92011
McfaddinTEXAS92016
EstherLOUISIANA82025
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA72019
RichardLOUISIANA62025
VanderbiltTEXAS51974
Goliad PrairieTEXAS52015
MauriceLOUISIANA42024
DanburyTEXAS42025
KatyTEXAS42025
Rock IslandTEXAS32024
KaplanLOUISIANA22023
WoodlawnLOUISIANA22021
Forked IslandLOUISIANA22025
WinnieTEXAS22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.