BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Central Hardwoods has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+27%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Chickadee in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Carolina Chickadee In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 5.3–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–9.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 5.3–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.35.19.5
20277.35.29.5
20287.45.29.6
20297.45.39.6
20307.55.39.7

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FarwellARKANSAS382018
HillsboroALABAMA311996
SwaimALABAMA262025
BelknapILLINOIS252025
BelmontINDIANA242024
ClementineMISSOURI232002
Osage BeachMISSOURI212025
Pond CreekTENNESSEE212025
TrianaALABAMA202012
AkersMISSOURI192025
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY182023
Trace LewisTENNESSEE182017
MarshallARKANSAS162021
BremenILLINOIS162025
CascadeMISSOURI162025
BaronOKLAHOMA162023
Indian Mound 2TENNESSEE162023
ZionARKANSAS152025
ComptonARKANSAS152022
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA142010
HoosierINDIANA142025
Rueter 2MISSOURI142025
New PhilaINDIANA132025
Clementine 2MISSOURI132007
RomeOHIO122025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.