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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+107%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.3–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–8.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.3–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.83.18.6
20275.93.28.6
20286.03.28.7
20296.03.38.8
20306.13.38.8

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pidcoke 2TEXAS172025
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS162025
Dripping SpgTEXAS132025
BoerneTEXAS102025
ManorTEXAS72024
LeanderTEXAS72006
San SabaTEXAS52024
FitzhughTEXAS41983
UtopiaTEXAS32025
Valley SpgsTEXAS32025
HarperTEXAS32025
AdamsvilleTEXAS32025
KempnerTEXAS22025
MontellTEXAS22018
GeorgetownTEXAS11974
PidcokeTEXAS12017
Indian MtnTEXAS11989
Manor 2TEXAS12025
LeakeyTEXAS12025
Allen CreekTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.