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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+83%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Chickadee In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.4–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.4–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.93.18.6
20265.93.28.7
20276.03.38.7
20286.13.38.8
20296.13.48.9

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dripping SpgTEXAS232024
Pidcoke 2TEXAS142024
AdamsvilleTEXAS92024
Valley SpgsTEXAS72024
ManorTEXAS72024
LeanderTEXAS72006
UtopiaTEXAS62024
San SabaTEXAS52024
FitzhughTEXAS41983
KempnerTEXAS32024
BoerneTEXAS22024
HarperTEXAS22024
MontellTEXAS22018
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS22024
GeorgetownTEXAS11974
PidcokeTEXAS12017
Indian MtnTEXAS11989
LeakeyTEXAS12024
Allen CreekTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.