BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 366% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+366%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 366% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.9–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.9–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.83.9
20262.91.84.0
20272.91.94.0
20283.01.94.0
20293.01.94.1

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChassahowitzFLORIDA262024
Mt. OliveFLORIDA202024
CroomFLORIDA202024
NobletonFLORIDA152024
BelmoreFLORIDA142024
CitrusFLORIDA132024
St AugustineFLORIDA122024
Green SwampFLORIDA112024
Mabel 2FLORIDA82019
GoetheFLORIDA82024
MicanopyFLORIDA71991
MabelFLORIDA72011
Ft MccoyFLORIDA72024
Citrus ParkFLORIDA72024
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA61987
FlemingtonFLORIDA61999
RomeoFLORIDA52024
Pennywash CrFLORIDA51999
AripekaFLORIDA42023
Myakka HeadFLORIDA31987
San AntonioFLORIDA32024
KenansvilleFLORIDA32006
Island GroveFLORIDA32024
Dale MabryFLORIDA21987
DeanvilleFLORIDA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.