BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 432% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+432%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 432% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.0–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.0–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.94.2
20273.11.94.2
20283.12.04.3
20293.22.04.3
20303.22.04.3

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. OliveFLORIDA292025
NobletonFLORIDA252025
CroomFLORIDA192025
BelmoreFLORIDA142024
Ft MccoyFLORIDA122025
Green SwampFLORIDA122025
OcalaFLORIDA92025
Island GroveFLORIDA82025
CitrusFLORIDA82025
MicanopyFLORIDA71991
MabelFLORIDA72011
GoetheFLORIDA72025
ChassahowitzFLORIDA72025
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA61987
FlemingtonFLORIDA61999
AripekaFLORIDA62025
St AugustineFLORIDA52025
Pennywash CrFLORIDA51999
Citrus ParkFLORIDA52025
San AntonioFLORIDA42025
RomeoFLORIDA32025
Myakka HeadFLORIDA31987
KenansvilleFLORIDA32006
Mabel 2FLORIDA32025
Dale MabryFLORIDA21987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.