BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 366% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+366%Since 1968
35Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 366% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.9–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029
3.0Projected 2029 index
1.9–4.195% range
±27.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.81.83.9
20262.91.84.0
20272.91.94.0
20283.01.94.0
20293.01.94.1

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Peninsular Florida.
ChassahowitzFLORIDA262024
Mt. OliveFLORIDA202024
CroomFLORIDA202024
NobletonFLORIDA152024
BelmoreFLORIDA142024
CitrusFLORIDA132024
St AugustineFLORIDA122024
Green SwampFLORIDA112024
Mabel 2FLORIDA82019
GoetheFLORIDA82024
MicanopyFLORIDA71991
MabelFLORIDA72011
Ft MccoyFLORIDA72024
Citrus ParkFLORIDA72024
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA61987
FlemingtonFLORIDA61999
RomeoFLORIDA52024
Pennywash CrFLORIDA51999
AripekaFLORIDA42023
Myakka HeadFLORIDA31987
San AntonioFLORIDA32024
KenansvilleFLORIDA32006
Island GroveFLORIDA32024
Dale MabryFLORIDA21987
DeanvilleFLORIDA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.