BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Southeastern Coastal Plain has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
345Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has risen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Chickadee In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.4 (95% range 7.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.6–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.4 (95% range 7.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.17.411
20279.27.411
20289.37.511
20299.37.511
20309.47.611

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PinewoodSOUTH-CAROLINA622019
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA511982
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA412025
CowardSOUTH-CAROLINA372025
Miller XrdsFLORIDA322019
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA312022
BrundidgeALABAMA302021
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA291991
PlettenbergLOUISIANA282022
Cypress CrNORTH-CAROLINA282022
GastonburgALABAMA272024
WalthallMISSISSIPPI271987
Trace LormanMISSISSIPPI272019
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA272025
EpesALABAMA262024
LovedaleFLORIDA262011
Trace SouthMISSISSIPPI252019
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA252025
HarrellALABAMA242025
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA242025
Adams RunSOUTH-CAROLINA242025
Pearl RiverLOUISIANA232025
Wards CornerNORTH-CAROLINA222024
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA222017
CarrolltonALABAMA212025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.