BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Appalachian Mountains has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
252Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Chickadee in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Carolina Chickadee In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.2–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.2–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.54.07.0
20275.64.17.0
20285.64.17.1
20295.64.27.1
20305.74.27.1

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY611995
WallandTENNESSEE541989
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY482018
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY461997
LovellTENNESSEE452019
StevensonALABAMA342024
Smyer LakeALABAMA292025
ClimerTENNESSEE292004
MentoneALABAMA282023
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA272025
LinwoodGEORGIA262023
Corryton RdTENNESSEE252019
ShanghaiWEST-VIRGINIA252025
FincastleVIRGINIA242025
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA232024
WilliamsportMARYLAND232025
KehoeKENTUCKY221992
Mt OliveALABAMA212025
RiversideALABAMA212013
Mt OliveTENNESSEE212024
Pt PleasantWEST-VIRGINIA202025
McfarlandTENNESSEE191993
EdinburgVIRGINIA192025
KymulgaALABAMA182025
Mountain CtyGEORGIA182025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.