BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Appalachian Mountains has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
251Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Chickadee in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Carolina Chickadee In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.2–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.2–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.54.17.0
20265.64.17.0
20275.64.17.1
20285.74.27.1
20295.74.27.2

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY611995
WallandTENNESSEE541989
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY482018
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY461997
LovellTENNESSEE452019
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA422024
BramwellWEST-VIRGINIA352023
StevensonALABAMA342024
CovingtonVIRGINIA312024
ClimerTENNESSEE292004
MentoneALABAMA282023
EdinburgVIRGINIA272024
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA272024
LinwoodGEORGIA262023
Clear CreekWEST-VIRGINIA262024
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA252024
Corryton RdTENNESSEE252019
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA232024
KehoeKENTUCKY221992
RiversideALABAMA212013
FontanaNORTH-CAROLINA212024
Mt OliveTENNESSEE212024
ClintonWEST-VIRGINIA212024
New MarketVIRGINIA202024
Mountain CtyGEORGIA192024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.