BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Chickadee In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 434% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+434%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Chickadee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Carolina Chickadee In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.01–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.01–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.000.31
20270.160.000.31
20280.160.010.31
20290.160.010.31
20300.160.010.31

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LucerneOHIO32025
LattasburgOHIO22025
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12000
MaysvilleOHIO12012
HebronOHIO12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.