BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+342%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Carolina Chickadee In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.16 (95% range 0.01–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±142.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.16 (95% range 0.01–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.31
20260.160.000.31
20270.160.000.31
20280.160.010.31
20290.160.010.32

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LucerneOHIO52024
LattasburgOHIO42021
HebronOHIO32024
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12000
MaysvilleOHIO12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.