BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Chickadee In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Carolina Chickadee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+342%Since 1973
5Routes In Region
42Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Carolina Chickadee has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Chickadee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.16 (95% range 0.01–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029
0.16Projected 2029 index
0.01–0.3295% range
±142.2%Backtest error
19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.150.000.31
20260.160.000.31
20270.160.000.31
20280.160.010.31
20290.160.010.32

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Carolina Chickadee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
LucerneOHIO52024
LattasburgOHIO42021
HebronOHIO32024
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12000
MaysvilleOHIO12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.