BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Missouri has surged: up 675% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+675%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Missouri: up 675% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Missouri is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 4.3–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Missouri is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 4.3–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.94.05.9
20275.04.06.0
20285.14.16.1
20295.24.26.2
20305.34.36.2

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Northern Parula in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cascade3120251968
Osage Beach2520251997
Centerville1520251994
Clementine 21520072005
Rockingham1220251971
Graniteville1220251990
Moselle1120252000
Ohio1020251972
Lincoln1020252013
Clementine920021974
Bennett920251994
Mincy920252013
Rueter 2920252023
Wesco820251976
Syracuse820241969
Williamsvill820251994
Crane820251994
Barks820251994
Richland820252015
Palace820252014
Filley720251975
Frankford720251987
Akers620251967
Graydon620251969
Centertown620251973

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.