BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Missouri has surged: up 656% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+656%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Missouri: up 656% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Missouri is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 4.2–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Missouri is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 4.2–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.93.95.9
20265.04.06.0
20275.04.06.0
20285.14.16.1
20295.24.26.2

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Northern Parula in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cascade2120241968
Graniteville1920241990
Osage Beach1820241997
Clementine 21520072005
Williamsvill1220241994
Centerville1220241994
Barks1120241994
Lincoln1120242013
Palace1020242014
Clementine920021974
Bennett920241994
Frankford920241987
Syracuse820241969
Rueter 2820242023
Graydon720241969
Filley720241975
Mincy720242013
Akers620241967
Richland620212015
Peace Valley520241975
Sweden520241968
Pineville520211974
Hayden520241975
Bland520241995
Doe Run520242015

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.