BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Missouri has surged: up 656% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+656%Since 1969
83Routes In State
57Years

Notable Northern Parula Trends in Missouri

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Parula has surged in Missouri: up 656% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Missouri is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 4.2–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029
5.2Projected 2029 index
4.2–6.295% range
±19.1%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.93.95.9
20265.04.06.0
20275.04.06.0
20285.14.16.1
20295.24.26.2

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Northern Parula in Missouri.
Cascade2120241968
Graniteville1920241990
Osage Beach1820241997
Clementine 21520072005
Williamsvill1220241994
Centerville1220241994
Barks1120241994
Lincoln1120242013
Palace1020242014
Clementine920021974
Bennett920241994
Frankford920241987
Syracuse820241969
Rueter 2820242023
Graydon720241969
Filley720241975
Mincy720242013
Akers620241967
Richland620212015
Peace Valley520241975
Sweden520241968
Pineville520211974
Hayden520241975
Bland520241995
Doe Run520242015

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.