Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula

Parulidae Forest birdsSetophaga americana

Northern Parula has surged: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+169%Since 1968

1,746Routes

58Years Surveyed

About the Northern Parula

The Northern Parula (Setophaga americana) is a North American member of the Wood-Warblers (Parulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size: 4.5–5.5 in long (11–14 cm) — a small, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat: Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet: Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range: Recorded on 1,746 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 37 states, most concentrated in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Family: Parulidae · Forest birds

Notable Northern Parula Trends

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Parula has surged in surveyed states: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 1.5–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029

1.7Projected 2029 index

1.5–2.095% range

±13.3%Backtest error

Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.

Year	Projected index	95% low	95% high
2025	1.6	1.4	1.9
2026	1.7	1.4	1.9
2027	1.7	1.5	1.9
2028	1.7	1.5	1.9
2029	1.7	1.5	2.0

Where the Northern Parula Is Detected

BBS routes recording Northern Parula, sized by most recent count.

Northern Parula Population Trend by State

Northern Parula population trend by state.

Alabama	+599%	1968	97
Arkansas	+339%	1969	58
California	insufficient data	n/a	1
Connecticut	+101%	1973	10
Delaware	insufficient data	n/a	4
Florida	+292%	1968	100
Georgia	+218%	1968	104
Illinois	27×	1969	57
Indiana	23×	1976	51
Iowa	insufficient data	n/a	2
Kansas	14×	1972	24
Kentucky	24×	1968	59
Louisiana	-16%	1969	75
Maine	+383%	1968	77
Maryland	+172%	1968	72
Massachusetts	+444%	1970	12
Michigan	14×	1968	53
Minnesota	13×	1969	35
Mississippi	+257%	1968	57
Missouri	+656%	1969	83
Nebraska	insufficient data	n/a	1
New Hampshire	+609%	1968	24
New Jersey	+381%	1987	17
New York	+504%	1968	48
North Carolina	+46%	1968	106
Ohio	24×	1976	36
Oklahoma	+319%	1969	33
Pennsylvania	+170%	1968	90
Rhode Island	insufficient data	n/a	2
South Carolina	-33%	1968	49
South Dakota	insufficient data	n/a	1
Tennessee	25×	1968	50
Texas	-41%	1969	55
Vermont	15×	1968	20
Virginia	+173%	1968	79
West Virginia	+52%	1968	62
Wisconsin	+142%	1968	42

Northern Parula Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Northern Parula population trend by Bird Conservation Region.

Boreal Hardwood Transition	+347%	1968	103
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain	+90%	1974	17
Atlantic Northern Forest	+685%	1968	140
Central Mixed Grass Prairie	+65%	2009	5
Oaks and Prairies	+306%	1969	34
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie	13×	1969	148
Prairie Hardwood Transition	+121%	1974	32
Central Hardwoods	22×	1968	158
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas	+49%	1969	96
Mississippi Alluvial Valley	+259%	1968	59
Southeastern Coastal Plain	+150%	1968	327
Appalachian Mountains	+363%	1968	314
Piedmont	+377%	1968	143
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast	+184%	1968	93
Peninsular Florida	+347%	1968	56
Gulf Coastal Prairie	-96%	1969	14

Northern Parula Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 169% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.