BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Michigan has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

14×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Michigan: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Michigan is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.83–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.83–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Michigan is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.83–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.731.9
20261.30.761.9
20271.40.781.9
20281.40.812.0
20291.40.832.0

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Northern Parula in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marenisco1020191981
Gibbs City1020241979
Imp Lake1020191992
Bergland920221979
Ishpeming820231983
Shingleton620241967
Muskallonge620241966
Crystal Fls420241989
Maple Grove420241971
Cluster Lakes420092007
Ontonagon320191985
Brocky Lake320242004
Raco320242009
Bootjack220231971
Herman220221983
Seney Nwr220171992
Gilchrist220211985
Gooseneck220102008
Fowlerville219861983
Sidnaw220241993
Harrietta120162016
Ned Lake120241986
Chippewa Lk.120142014
Cunard119871978
Creighton120051986

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.