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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Michigan has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

14×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Michigan: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Michigan is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.87–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.87–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Michigan is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.87–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.761.9
20271.40.791.9
20281.40.811.9
20291.40.842.0
20301.40.872.0

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Northern Parula in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gibbs City1320251979
Marenisco1020191981
Ishpeming1020251983
Imp Lake1020191992
Bergland920221979
Brocky Lake620252004
Muskallonge620241966
Ned Lake520251986
Maple Grove520251971
Raco420252009
Cluster Lakes420092007
Ontonagon320191985
Crystal Fls320251989
Shingleton320251967
Rochester320252025
Sidnaw320251993
Bootjack220231971
Herman220221983
Seney Nwr220171992
Gilchrist220211985
Gooseneck220102008
Fowlerville219861983
Harrietta120162016
Chippewa Lk.120142014
Cunard119871978

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.