BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Arkansas has surged: up 406% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+406%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Arkansas: up 406% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Arkansas is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.1–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Arkansas is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.1–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.11.94.3
20273.22.04.4
20283.22.04.4
20293.32.14.5
20303.32.14.5

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Northern Parula in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magazine Mtn1720251995
Zion1620251970
Compton1620221967
Crowley'S Ridge1520252011
Nance1320251993
Marshall1120212011
Princeton1020211999
Stark920251967
Centerton920252010
Farwell920182010
Yellville820252010
Ravenden Springs820152010
Dry Fork 2820252024
Rudy720252011
Maynard620251997
Princeton 2620222022
South Bend520251967
Coal Hill520231981
Lurton520231967
Avoca520241969
Boston Mtn.520251995
Ramsey419961967
Stamps420151984
Hollywood420241969
Rupert420241967

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.